Investing Mistakes to Avoid

Investing Mistakes to Avoid

·        Sell when the market is down

There is an old saying about investing, "If you look at the floor and it is red from rose peddles, it is time to sell. If you look at the floor and it is red from blood- it is time to buy". Many inexperienced investors tend to sell when the market drops, locking in losses. However, someone is always willing to buy those shares at a discount.

·        Buy high, sell low

According to JP Morgan Asset Management,  in the 20 year period ending in 2013, the average investor made a return of 2.5%. Yet, in the same time period, the S&P 500 Index earned  9.2 and the Aggregate Bond Index earned 5.7%. Humans are social creatures and tend to follow the herd. Thus, people who have not been investing in stocks before tend to go in at the top of the market only to see their investments go down in value.  Then they sell at the bottom only to repeat this cycle over and over again.

·        Stay on the sidelines until the market calms down

Often, people wait until it feels "safe" to go back in. It will only feel "safe" to go back in after the market has appreciated again and the biggest gains have already happened. It is not easy to time the markets and few do it well consistently.

·        Watching for stock market tips on cable TV and radio shows

Few tips on stocks have any lasting value because the stock market immediately updates any news that impacts a company's stock price the moment it is reported. Lessons learned from the field of Behavioral Finance point to the importance of acknowledging all of our investing biases and avoiding the pitfalls caused by them.  Cable TV and radio shows make you more susceptible to panic selling and investor remorse. Every pundit considers himself or herself  an expert. Their advice is typically conflicting. Remember that no one can predict the future and you should only be in the market if you are a long term investor.

·        My best friend says ____ is a sure thing

Here again.... No one can predict the future. Avoid investing tips. They usually lead to investment losses.

    ·        Ignore fees

You should always know the cost associated with an investment. Is there an upfront sales charge, surrender charge or 12b1 charge? What are the management fees or advisory fees?

·        Use an investment model

If you plan to invest in a model that has 60% invested in stocks, you need to periodically rebalance the portfolio back to this model or you could wind up with a much more aggressive portfolio as your stock funds appreciate in a rising market. Periodically rebalancing also allows you to take profits and to buy assets when they are cheaper.

·        People are often swayed by the latest and the greatest

There are always going to be "darlings" in the stock market. Over the years I have seen many favored stocks fall out of favor and lose value. You often make more money investing in a company when it has stumbled and is beginning to recover. Investors are often overly optimistic  in rising markets and overly pessimistic when the market goes down.

·        Doing a " Hail Mary Pass" to an overvalued stock

If only you had invested all your money in __________10 years ago, you'd be a millionaire today. You can fill in the blanks (Apple, Google, Amazon.com etc.). Betting a large portion of your assets one investment in a hope and a prayer is a dangerous gamble and it is not investing, it is gambling.

Having been at this a long time, I remember all of the companies that have fallen on hard times. In fact, in 2011 alone, there were 86 companies that filed for bankruptcy according to BankruptsyData.Com. Some of the largest bankruptcies of all time include General Motors, Chrysler, Enron, CIT, WorldCom, Washington Mutual, and Lehman Brothers. All were "Darlings" at one time.

There is no silver bullet when it comes to investing. Everyone’s goals, time horizon and financial circumstances are different. If you would like to discuss this further just give me a call at 201-843-0044.

How can I Provide for Cash Flow in Retirement?

                          How can I Provide for Cash Flow in Retirement?

 

Clients often ask me this question. Less and less Americans still have a pension check coming in. Thus, they need to focus on Social Security benefits and finding prudent ways to tap their assets in retirement. I have detailed below some of the different ways that people handle their day to day cash flow in retirement:

 

Bucket Approach- Many people choose to set aside a “bucket” of money in a savings account that has enough money in it to cover one to two years worth of expenses.  Then, you withdraw from that fund a monthly stipend in order to cover your cash flow expenses.  Under this approach, people have traditionally taken out a withdrawal equal to 4% of their portfolio value. The assumption is that the portfolio over time would return them that much or more.  Given that we are in a fragile economic time, it would be more prudent to take a lower distribution. Perhaps a 3% distribution might be more appropriate (at least until the economy gets better).

 

Payout the Interest and Dividends- You can have all of your funds payout the dividends and/or interest that they earn. The advantage of this is that you do not need to dip into the principal. However, it does not allow you to diversify your portfolio because all of your money needs to be invested in income producing investments.

 

Immediate Annuity- Immediate Annuities offer a way to create a private pension plan similar to what you would receive if you had a pension from an employer. The advantage this offers is that it gives you a stable monthly check for a certain time period or for lifetime. The disadvantages are that it is an irrevocable decision and does not help you plan for inflation.

 

Variable Annuity with Guaranteed Payout- I mentioned that many people have chosen to use variable annuities with a guaranteed principal rider. I am not a big fan of this option because of the high overall fees you would pay each year.

 

Combination Plan- A third approach would be a combination of the first two approaches. Annuities or CDs would be used for the beginning part of your retirement, followed by dipping into the principal of your bond allocation and eventually dipping into your stock allocation later in retirement. Many people have chosen to not go for the annuity approach because it's an irrevocable decision.  However, it does help with the volatility.

 

There is no perfect answer. Everyone’s goals, time horizon and financial circumstances are different. If you would like to discuss this further just give me a call at 201-843-0044.

Lessons Learned after Sending Four Kids Off to College- PART 2

Lessons Learned after Sending Four Kids Off to College

   PART 2

 

How do you pay for your kids to go to college? In this blog, we will dig deeper into the financial aid process and how to evaluate different schools.

1.Fill out the FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) as early as possible even if you don’t think you will qualify for any financial aid. 

 

 I know, no one likes completing the FAFSA but every school requires it.  If your child receives a merit scholarship you may still have to complete the FAFSA form each year even though the merit scholarship had nothing to do with financial aid.

Reach out to me if you need help completing the FAFSA.

2. Understand How Your Assets affect Financial Aid.

Parents worry about how their assets might sabotage their chances for need-based aid. Aid formulas typically don’t consider retirement assets for financial aid purposes. The FAFSA form doesn’t ask about the value of a family’s retirement accounts.

The FAFSA, which is universally used by schools participating in the federal financial aid system, also doesn’t ask parents if they own a primary residence. Consequently, home equity won’t hurt your chances of receiving financial aid.

In addition, the aid application isn’t concerned with the assets of family-owned businesses with 100 or less full-time employees.

3. Some Colleges/Universities require the CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE.

Four hundred schools, nearly all private, use an additional aid application called the CSS Profile which takes a much deeper look at family finances.  This is a very difficult form to complete so call me if you would like my assistance in completing the form.

They  request that you send your supporting tax documents to a PO Box. I was uncomfortable with that so I sent the documents FedEx directly to the schools. Call beforehand because not every college will allow you to do this. While PROFILE schools also ignore retirement accounts, they do inquire about home equity and family-owned businesses. 

4. In my opinion, it is very important for the parents to stay very involved in the process.

I don’t agree that the student should go through this process with little support. There is too much at stake and the expense of college is too much of an investment. I know some guidance counselors and parents will disagree with me. This is just my opinion. I  think your child (and they are only 17/18 years old) will make a better decision if you all dig deep into the statistics and all are involved in the decision. Without guidance, students put too much weight on their “gut feeling”, look of the campus and the cafeteria food.

5. Know the Statistics that Count.

Since we were dealing with twins heading off to college, it became even more important to stay organized in comparing schools. It also became imperative to keep track of what applications, essays, FAFSA and CSS Profile forms were submitted and received. We kept an excel spreadsheet with the following information:

·       Tuition

·       Room and Board

·       Fees

·       % of students who graduate in 4 years and then in 6 years

·       Retention rate-% of students who stay after Freshman year

·       Range of  GPA admitted

·       Range of  ACT or SAT Scores admitted

·       % admitted

·       # of students

·       safe, target or reach school

·       Interested major/minor offered

·       Location, cost of travel

·       Likelihood of internships

·       Student/Faculty ratio

·       % of students who get scholarships

·       % that get financial aid

·       ROI or Best Value

·       CSS Profile required and completed

6. Check out the college's ROI or whether they are considered a “Best Value”.

The following website provides the return on investment (ROI) for colleges. The results may surprise you. However, if the college or university offers mostly technical majors (science, math, engineering etc.) that will also affect the ROI. It is interesting that some of the most expensive schools do not fare as well as more modestly priced schools.   www.payscale.com/college-education-value.

7. Check out Net Price Calculators.

Net price calculators are invaluable new tools that are now having a dramatic impact on higher-education practices.

A net price calculator will provide you with a personal estimate of what a particular school will cost after scholarships or grants are subtracted. To use the calculator, you will need to have information from your latest tax returns and investment statements.

The federal government has mandated that all schools maintain a net price calculator on their website. Often the easiest way to find the calculator for an institution is to Google the name of the school and “net price calculator.” If the net prices are way beyond your budget, you can then search for schools that may be more affordable.

8. Decide on your family philosophy toward paying for college when comparing offers.

Know how much you are willing to spend towards your child's education and how much you expect them to pay. Decide on how much debt, if any, you are willing to have your child take on after graduation. Discuss this with them early on in the process. Discuss early whether you expect them to work during the school year or summers to help pay as well.

We found it very helpful to multiply the tuition and scholarships by 4 (hopefully they graduate in 4 years). A $10,000 tuition difference in one year may not seem like such a determining factor. However, $40,000 may influence your decision.

9. Their debt is your debt.

Many have written that they think that student debt is the next bubble and I tend to agree. According to JP Morgan Asset Management, student debt represents 9% of all debts in America. That is higher than credit card debt and auto loans.  Few student loans allow the student to borrow alone. The parents are often cosigner or loan guarantors. Student debts are the only debts you cannot walk away from even  in the event of a bankruptcy. Thus, be realistic about how much you all can afford to pay back. Students with too much debt usually have to delay going on to higher education, saving for a house, retirement or starting a family.

10. Discuss the major they are interested in studying and the likelihood and difficulty paying off their debt based on the salary they expect to earn.

Encourage your child to research the earning potential for the major they are interested in studying. If they want to go for a major that has low earnings potential, they need to be realistic about the debt they take on.

Please call me if you have any questions in regards to any of these issues. I'd be happy to discuss it with you further.

Lessons Learned after Sending Four Kids Off to College. Part One

Lessons Learned after Sending Four Kids Off to College.

   PART 1

I recently dropped off my twins for their first year of college. These are my last two. I had two sons graduate in 2011 and 2012.  Here are some lessons I learned along the way. There are so many that I will do this blog in two parts.

1. Don’t be afraid to apply to colleges that may seem out of your budget.

There is often a big difference between the “sticker price” and the final tuition price offered. Often, private colleges will offer merit scholarships even if your child does not qualify for financial aid. Your child is more likely to receive money if he or she offer something the college wants (a talent, profile, qualifications).  If your child's grades and test scores are higher than the average student at the school, they are more likely to get a scholarship and/or be a candidate for the honors program. Note: Be aware that some colleges offer  “Awards”  that are actually loans which need to be paid back.  Your child also has a better chance at getting accepted and offered money by a college that is further from home for diversity reasons.  However, don’t forget to consider the added cost of airfares, etc. when comparing offers.

2. Apply for Early Action not Early Decision.

Early Action allows your child to be one of the first applicants evaluated and perhaps have a better chance of getting accepted. They are not obligated to attend. Also, Early Action applicants have a better chance of being offered money. If you don’t object to paying the sticker price and your child has wanted to go to a particular college since kindergarten then go with Early Decision. However, Early Decision takes away much of your bargaining power.

There are hundreds of colleges that offer a quality education. The common application makes it easier to apply to more colleges and see what comes back in terms of programs and scholarships. However, your child must be willing to put in the extra effort of completing many more essays, since many colleges require supplemental essays.

 3. Few students get money for athletics.

Very few students go on to college athletic programs and only a few of them actually get scholarships. One of my sons got on a Division I track team but did not receive a scholarship for it. There is nothing wrong with your child being dedicated to a sport. Obviously, there are many benefits. Just don't rely on a sports scholarship to pay all or part of your child's college education.

 4.  529 Plans are a great deal.

529 plans offer you the option of saving for college without having to pay taxes on the earnings within the account, as long as the money is used for a "qualified expense" (room & board, books, tuition). You need to keep good records in case you are ever audited. If the school offers credit card payment options, pay the bill by credit card and then payoff the credit card with the 529 plan withdrawal. This will help you earn points (if your card offers them) for school expenses paid.

5. Even Small Scholarships Help.

My daughter and son got several small scholarships by writing essays in the spring of their senior year when most kids are not interested in writing more essays (so they had a better chance of winning them).   Have them start writing their essays early. The questions come out in the summer and the best essays take lots of revisions. Part of the common application essay and supplemental essays could possibly be used as starting off points for the essay entries in the spring. Suggest that they ask their teachers early for their letters of recommendation (before they get overwhelmed with other requests).

6. Guidance Counselors Can be Worth Their Weight in Gold.

We were lucky to have very informative and helpful guidance counselors for all of our children. If you are not as fortunate, there are college counselors and many college fairs where you can gather information as well as campus visits. Big universities vary in terms of how important it is to visit the campus.

In our next blog entry, I will delve deeper into the financial aid process and how to evaluate different schools. Please call me if you have any questions.  I'd be happy to discuss them with you.

What Should You Do If You Are Facing A Job Change?

 

What Should You Do If You Are Facing A Job Change?

 

Whenever one of my clients is in a job change situation I always feel it's important to highlight the following issues in helping guide them through this transition:

1. If you do receive any severance, it's an important time to take stock of your cash flow expenses and look carefully at what is an essential bill and to cut out any excess discretionary spending. The goal of a severance package is to help you to survive the period of being unemployed. It can take quite awhile to find another job, thus by cutting your expenses, it will allow you to cover your expenses for a longer period of time.

2. Many people feel that they need to move quickly to make changes to their 401(k) and/or to rollover the money. I often encourage clients to slow down and make no decisions on their 401(k) plan, until they see where they land. You can always roll the money over, and there is no time limit on rolling it over. As long as you have $5,000 or more in the plan, there is no reason you cannot leave it there indefinitely. At a later point you could roll it over to your new employer or roll it over to an IRA rollover account.

3. As long as your employer has more than 20 employees, you are eligible to be covered by your employer health plan through COBRA. This is a great advantage because it give you more planning options for the future. Many people are surprised to see how expensive the cost of COBRA is. This is because often when you work for a company your health insurance has been heavily subsidized. Also, now with the Affordable Care Act there are health exchanges available that offer options as well. That may make it easier to obtain an individual policy that might be cheaper than COBRA.

4. Many people don't realize that as soon as you lose your job you are no longer covered for disability benefits. Thus, if you were disabled during the time you are job hunting, you would have no coverage in place. If you have a private disability policy this would not be the case.

5. Often, people don't realize that you may have the option of converting the group life insurance coverage you have with your employer. If you have any outstanding health issues and want to keep the life insurance, this could be a very valuable option to consider.

6. Review you Flex Plan benefits. Once you leave your employer, you may lose those benefits. Perhaps it is time for some new glasses or quickly scheduled medical/dental care.

7. Stock Options usually end with termination of employment. Do you feel bullish about the company? Are your options under water? Are they Nonqualified or Incentive Stock Options? There are many considerations here.

Please call me if you have any follow-up questions in regards to any of these issues and I'd be happy to discuss these issues with you further.

Is Longevity a Risk?

Is Longevity a Risk?

 Life expectancies have been rising for decades and  the number of centenarians in developed countries is growing 5% per year.  Of course, not that many people make it to that age. A more impressive statistic is offered by JP Morgan's Guide to Retirement which shows that  a 65 year old married couple  has a 73% chance of at least one person reaching the age of 85 and a 47% chance of at least one person making it to the age of 90. Also, these are averages including smokers, people who are obese, and people with health problems . Typically,  my clients are well educated and financially more secure.  The higher the level of education, the less likely people are to smoke and/or to be obese. Thus, I would suspect that these numbers would skew towards higher ages if you exclude smokers.

According to the Society of Actuaries, 40% of adults underestimate their life expectancy by five or more years. People are often more risk averse as they get older and would prefer a less volatile portfolio. Yet, this short term risk aversion increases your risk of outliving your money. Not only are bond yields low today but many think that rates will rise in the years ahead. As yields rise, erosion of principal in bond investments often  takes place. This does not mean that you should jettison bond related investments but it does mean that diversification in your bond strategy is essential. It also means that it is important to be conservative in your withdrawals from a retirement portfolio.

Delaying filing for Social Security benefits is one of the wisest courses of action. By delaying filing for Social Security benefits from age 62 to age 66 (if born 1943-1954) will increase your benefits by 25%. By delaying from age 66 until age 70, you will get 32% more in benefits. Where else can you guarantee a 7.3% compound growth rate on your money (annual growth in benefits age 62-70)? Also, delaying filing gives you a higher inflation adjustment each year.

Be realistic about withdrawal rates. If you had an apple tree, it would give you a yearly harvest that would last for years. However, if you cut off a few branched each year, the harvest will decline. In this environment, it pays to be prudent about withdrawals. I recommend that portfolio withdrawals not exceed 3% per year (rising with inflation), especially in the first ten years of retirement. Taking out more than this is the equivalent of cutting branches and could lead to a shortfall later in retirement.

 You need to understand all of the factors that lead to a successful retirement. You control how much you spend and the portfolio model you chose. You have no control over market returns and/or government policies and you have some control over your longevity and your decision of when you retire. Make the most of the things you can control.

Moving Money Electronically -- Your Protections and Risks

Moving Money Electronically -- Your Protections and Risks

As electronic banking increasingly becomes the preferred means of conducting financial transactions for consumers and businesses alike, the security risks posed by online money transfer continue to proliferate.

For their part, banks have a vested interest in keeping their customers' assets and confidential information secure. That is why the banking industry as a whole has developed a series of standard security protocols and techniques designed to do just that.

 Common Fraud Protections

 Following are general protections offered by most banks. Be sure to compare this list against the measures your own banking partners have put in place to keep your identity and assets safe as you bank online with them.

Firewalls -- Firewalls are software or hardware-based security systems that create a secure barrier between your bank's internal network, where your information is stored, and the unsecured Internet. The data "traffic" flowing in and out of the bank's network is monitored and analyzed to determine its legitimacy.

 

Encryption -- Encryption scrambles information being transmitted between your device and the bank's network into a code that is virtually impossible to decipher, thereby protecting against unauthorized access. Many financial institutions now use 128-bit encryption, an advanced encryption technology.

 

Multilayered Authentication -- Many online banking/financial systems now require many layers of user identification, or authentication, that only those authorized can provide. For instance, some authentication protocols verify the device the customer is using to access the bank's website. If the device does not match the bank's records, additional authentication measures, such as one or more challenge questions, will be presented to the customer. Similarly, commercial online banking also applies a layered security approach whereby two or more identifying factors are required to gain access (e.g., a username and password plus a security token).

 

Monitoring -- Keeping vigilant watch over network operations is integral to the online security policies of most banks. Technology specialists continuously monitor online activity looking for out of the norm customer behavior and/or suspicious activity, particularly at login. For instance, too many incorrect login attempts will signal the system to lock a user out of their account until positive account verification can be confirmed. Transaction amounts (specifically withdrawals) that fall outside the customer's normal or pre-established limits are also scrutinized.

 

Industry partnerships -- Aside from internal controls, many banking institutions work closely with anti-virus and anti-malware vendors, sharing data they have collected and collaborating on new online fraud prevention techniques. Similarly, banks often work with law enforcement agencies, sharing information that may lead to safer online experiences for their customers.

 

The Ultimate Protection

As sophisticated as the banking industry's security measures have become, there is no substitute for a well-educated and aware customer. Toward that end, a bank's customer awareness and educational efforts should address both retail and commercial account holders and, at a minimum, include the following elements:

 

·         An explanation of protections provided, and not provided, to account holders relative to electronic funds transfers

·         An explanation of under what, if any, circumstances and through what means the institution may contact a customer on an unsolicited basis and request confidential account-related credentials

·         A list of risk control measures that customers may consider implementing to mitigate their own risk

·         A list of appropriate contacts for customers to use if they notice suspicious account activity or experience security-related events

 

Finally- What about you?

 

·        You need to be aggressive in making robust passwords and use different passwords for each financial vendor you deal with

 

·        You need to have up to date virus scan software and firewalls on your computers

 

·        You need to be aware that many scams are perpetrated via email. Often they are disguised as legitimate requests for information from your bank.

 

Source/Disclaimer:

Source: The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), "FFIEC Supplement to Authentication in an Internet Banking Environment," June 29, 2011.

Required Attribution

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by Wealth Management Systems Inc. or its sources, neither Wealth Management Systems Inc. nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall Wealth Management Systems Inc. be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber's or others' use of the content.

 

© 2014 Wealth Management Systems Inc. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

 

 

Easy Money Winds Down, Markets React

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 2013 at a new all-time record, and the S&P 500 reached its all-time closing high two weeks later. The Federal Reserve is confident enough that in December it announced it would begin reducing the bond purchases that have helped fuel economic recovery.  

But fast-forward to the end of January and things look a little different. The Dow lost 5.6% during the month--its worst January since 2009--and the S&P 500 went from an all-time high to a monthly loss in just over two weeks. What in the world has been going on? 

As it turns out, "what in the world" is exactly the right phrase. The recent turmoil demonstrates just how tightly linked global markets are now. The shift in Fed policy coupled with internal problems in a number of emerging-market countries have given financial markets around the world the jitters. After 2013's stellar run for equities, many investors have decided to back away from risk for a while, and that has hurt not only emerging markets but also U.S. stocks.  

If you're unclear about why a headline like "Argentina devalues its peso" can have an impact on equities around the world, you're not alone. Here's a brief look at how Fed policy and emerging-market currencies have combined to wreak havoc on global markets recently.  

Good news, bad news from the Fed 

Since November 2008, policies by both the Federal Reserve and other central banks have kept interest rates low; to combat the recession, they injected money into the global economy and made it easier to obtain credit. Emerging markets benefitted from that easy money. Investors who grew impatient with the Fed's historically low interest rates turned to investments paying a higher return. In many cases, those investments were overseas, and that influx of money helped fuel growth in emerging markets.  

However, that dynamic began to show signs of reversing last June after the Fed announced its plans for winding down its economic support. Investors who had sought the higher interest rates that emerging markets had to pay on their debt began to rethink their strategy, anticipating the end of rock-bottom rates on U.S. Treasuries and a stronger dollar. Once the Fed actually began cutting its bond purchases last month, currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee, the South African rand, and the Turkish lira began to lose value even more rapidly. As a country's currency weakened and each real or lira bought less and less, higher prices set in, especially for goods valued in stronger currencies such as the dollar.

 

That kind of inflation, coupled with high budget deficits in many cases, has contributed to political instability in some countries. Many emerging-market leaders have been faced with a difficult choice. Do they raise interest rates to try to fight inflation and keep investment assets from leaving the country for bigger returns elsewhere--at the risk of hurting what may be an already fragile economy by making credit tougher to get? Or do they devalue their currency further, hoping that less-expensive exports will improve sales, but also risking greater inflation and the anger of citizens suffering from soaring prices? That uncertainty has brought on double-digit losses in the stock markets of some developing economies such as Brazil and Turkey. 

The Fed isn't the only reason for emerging-market problems

The beginning of tighter Fed policy in January was followed by a second trigger for the current turmoil: a survey of purchasing managers in China that suggested that the manufacturing sector there was slowing. China has announced plans to rein its so-called "shadow banking" system--unregulated lending that has helped fuel a frenzy of development there in recent years. China's manufacturing sector, which serves as the factory floor for much of the world, is an important customer for the commodity exports that are vital to many emerging economies; lower demand for commodities could have a substantial impact on countries whose economies depend on exporting them. If Chinese manufacturing catches a cold, economies that depend on exports to those manufacturers could get the flu, and the disease could take the biggest toll on countries whose economies are already sick or that have low reserves of U.S. dollars in their coffers. 

Concerns about such problems have come to a head in the last few weeks as countries have taken various approaches to try to deal with their problems. Argentina stunned global markets when it devalued its peso by almost 20% in an attempt to help pay the country's debts, while Venezuela imposed indirect currency controls. Turkey nearly doubled its key interest rate, while central banks in Brazil, India, and South Africa also have raised interest rates in the last couple of weeks.  

Why does any of this matter to U.S. equities? 

There are two reasons why the turmoil in emerging markets has had an impact domestically. First, many large U.S. companies derive a substantial percentage of their revenues overseas. Weaker currencies abroad can cut into those companies' revenues as American goods become more unaffordable for customers overseas and sales made in a weakened currency are worth less to a company's bottom line. Headwinds from exchange rates and lower sales could affect corporate profits. 

Also, it wasn't so long ago that global financial institutions were at serious risk of being hurt by bad investments in struggling countries. Memories of Greece and other struggling eurozone countries in 2011-2012 are helping to fuel a global "risk off" mentality among investors already on edge about how aggressively the Fed will tighten and how the U.S. economy will respond.

Keep some perspective in the face of turbulence 

The events of recent weeks are a reminder that emerging markets are typically more volatile than those of more developed economies, and that in addition to being subject to the usual risks that apply to all equities, foreign investments are subject to the currency and political risks that are an inherent part of investing internationally. However, it's also worth remembering that the International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to an annual rate of 3.7%*. Also, one of the reasons for the Fed's monetary tightening is that its outlook for the U.S. economy is more encouraging. The Fed also has left itself plenty of room to maintain its support; in 2010, it halted bond purchases because the economy was growing, only to renew them a couple of months later. The Fed won't meet again until the end of March, so markets will have a little time to digest its most recent decision. 

Don't let every twist and turn derail a carefully constructed investment game plan. If you're focused on a long-term goal, remember that your personal circumstances are just as important as external events, and ups and downs in the market are to be expected. Though the S&P 500 lost 3.6% in January, that came on the heels of a 29.6% price gain in 2013, and many experts have argued that some retrenchment in an almost five-year bull market is to be expected. However, it might be worth exploring how various asset classes in your portfolio could be affected by Fed actions and global volatility, and whether there are ways to hedge your exposure. And if you've been keeping a substantial cash position, volatility also may present buying opportunities.

 

Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions or concerns you want to discuss.

 

*World Economic Outlook Update, January 2014, www.imf.org,  as of 2/3/2014.

 All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Watters Financial Services, LLC and  Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. do not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. The information presented here is not specific to any individual's personal circumstances.To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law.  Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances.These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials.  The information in these materials may change at any time without prior notice.